In the Press: Ausbiz - The Most Hated Rally Ever

3rd November, 2025

Daniel Reaper, Portfolio Manager, talked on Ausbiz TV about the S&P 500 is hitting record highs amid widespread pessimism marking one of the most “hated” bull markets ever. Despite strong fundamentals, sentiment remains bearish, with the AAII survey showing a -10% bull-bear spread, a level seen only in major downturns. This skepticism reflects fund managers’ underperformance to benchmarks, political uncertainty, and tariff concerns. Yet, history suggests we’re in the early phase of a multiyear bull market, still climbing the “wall of worry.” Meanwhile, AI-driven capex from mega-cap techs is fueling cloud growth, and Airbnb is evolving from a home-rental disruptor to a full travel ecosystem, integrating experiences, services, and AI-driven trip planning.

Watch Video: How much longer can the bull market run?

The Most Hated Market Rally

Picture this: the S&P 500 is kissing record highs. Nvidia’s market cap is flirting with nation-state GDP levels. And yet, if you opened Twitter (sorry, X), you’d think the apocalypse was scheduled for next Tuesday.

Welcome to the most hated bull market I’ve ever seen.

Even as the market prints new ATHs (all-time highs), the CNN Fear and Greed Index is flashing “Fear” like it’s 2020 all over again. Bizarre? Absolutely.

The AAII Survey: A 35-Year Anomaly

Every week, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) surveys high-net-worth retail investors. The question is simple:

“Are you bullish, bearish, or neutral on stocks over the next six months?”

They subtract bearish responses from bullish ones to create a bull-bear spread.

This year? The average spread is -10%.

That’s not just negative. That’s bear-market-level negative.

In the survey’s 35-year history, a full-year negative reading has only happened three times:

• 1990 (Gulf War recession)

• 2002 (dot-com hangover)

• 2022 (inflation + rate-hike panic)

Why? a mixture of negativity from fund managers underperforming their benchmark perhaps, by not allocating to big tech citing over valuations and they have not benefited from the rally and by default have to defend this positioning, they want to see markets fall so they can restore credibility. The other reason is uncertainty that comes from this Trump Administration, it has been a very volatile year, there’s still unknowns from tariffs; does the company absorbs them with compresses margins or do they pass them onto the consumer. Investors like to take a step back and monitor rather than participate.

Phase 1 of a Classic Bull Market

Let’s zoom out. Since 1950, the average bull market lasts ~5 years.

We kicked off this one in late 2022 right after ChatGPT dropped and AI became the new electricity.

That puts us in Year 3. Translation? At least two more years of runway, historically speaking.

But here’s the twist: Phase 1 bull markets are defined by skepticism. Euphoria doesn’t show up until Phase 3, usually right before the top.

Right now? We’re still in the “wall of worry” stage. And that wall is made of reinforced concrete.

The Mega-Cap AI CapEx Machine Is Just Warming Up

Remember when analysts screamed that AI capex would “destroy margins”?

• Amazon was roasted for AWS “overinvestment.” → Now a $100B run-rate business.

• Microsoft’s cloud pivot was called “reckless.” → Built a $3 trillion company.

• Google’s moonshots were mocked. → Created YouTube, Waymo, and AI itself.

The hyperscalers all beat cloud estimates. AWS $33B (+20%), fastest in three years; Azure (+40%) with commercial bookings +111%—a leading indicator of locked-in multi-year AI revenue for Microsoft; Google Cloud $15.2B (+34%), backlog +46% to $155B. Cloud averaged +31% growth, proving AI capex is paying off. Guidance raised across the board, capex concerns overblown, S&P +2% this week—Nvidia next to fuel the AI rally.

Airbnb: From Air Mattresses to a Full-Service Travel Stack

AirBnB fits squarely within the gig economy thematic because it enables individuals to monetize underutilized assets (their homes) and earn income flexibly, and now your time.

The $80 Air Mattress That Changed Travel Forever. October 2007. San Francisco. Rent is due. Two unemployed designers, Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia, stare at an empty loft and a city overflowing with conference attendees who can’t find a hotel room. Their solution? Blow up three air mattresses, cook homemade breakfast, and charge $80 a night. They slap together a website: airbedandbreakfast.com.

Three guests check in. The rent gets paid. And unknowingly, they just ignited a $180+ billion revolution in how the world travels.

Fast forward to 2025:

• 8 million active listings

• 5+ million hosts

• 1.5 billion guest arrivals since inception

• 490 million nights & experiences booked in 2024 alone

Airbnb didn’t just disrupt hotels. It democratized hospitality.

The Moat: Not Rooms, It’s the Network. Hotels need steel, concrete, and decades to scale. Airbnb? Just a spare room and a smartphone.

This asset-light, peer-to-peer model turned millions of homeowners into micro-entrepreneurs and built the deepest moat in travel:

• Network Effect: 8M listings + 150M users = flywheel no competitor can replicate.

• Brand Trust: 6 guests check in every second—built on reviews, Superhosts, and verification.

• Regulatory Agility: Survives bans in NYC, thrives in Japan—adapts faster than legacy chains.

Eighteen years later, it’s building the operating system for travel—one where:

• You don’t just book a place to sleep

• You book the entire memory

The Big Pivot: From Stays to The Entire Trip

Airbnb Experiences – Relaunch (May 2025)

$375 B Addressable market, AirBnB takes 20% clip on bookings.

Paused in 2023. Now back with 19 curated categories:

• Food tours & cooking classes

• Art workshops & museum deep-dives

• Wellness retreats & sunrise yoga

• Wildlife safaris & scuba adventures

Airbnb Services – Brand New (May 2025)

$200 B Addressable market, AirBnB takes 15% clip on bookings.

Book in-destination add-ons directly in the app:

• Private chefs & catering

• Spa treatments & massages

• Personal trainers & photographers

• Airport transfers & luggage storage

AI Agentic Travel Agent

While flashy AI travel agents grab headlines, Airbnb is starting where it matters most: customer service.

• AI bot rollout (U.S., 2025): Handles 80% of routine inquiries

• Next: AI trip planners → “Surprise me with a 3-day foodie weekend in Lisbon under $1,200”

• Future: Predictive rebooking → “Your flight’s delayed—here’s a same-day spa slot”

Data from 1.5 billion stays = the richest travel intent dataset on earth.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always DYOR.